Self-consistent redshift estimation using correlation functions without a spectroscopic reference sample

We present a new method to estimate redshift distributions and galaxy-dark matter bias parameters using correlation functions in a fully data driven and self-consistent manner. Unlike other machine learning, template, or correlation redshift methods, this approach does not require a reference sample with known redshifts. By measuring the projected cross- and auto- correlations of different galaxy sub-samples, e.g., as chosen by simple cells in color-magnitude space, we are able to estimate the galaxy-dark matter bias model parameters, and the shape of the redshift distributions of each sub-sample. This method fully marginalises over a flexible parameterisation of the redshift distribution and galaxy-dark matter bias parameters of sub-samples of galaxies, and thus provides a general Bayesian framework to incorporate redshift uncertainty into the cosmological analysis in a data-driven, consistent, and reproducible manner. This result is improved by an order of magnitude by including cross-correlations with the CMB and with galaxy-galaxy lensing. We showcase how this method could be applied to real galaxies. By using idealised data vectors, in which all galaxy-dark matter model parameters and redshift distributions are known, this method is demonstrated to recover unbiased estimates on important quantities, such as the offset $\Delta_z$ between the mean of the true and estimated redshift distribution and the 68\% and 95\% and 99.5\% widths of the redshift distribution to an accuracy required by current and future surveys.Comment: 20pages, 11 figures, text revised for clarification, version accepted by journal, conclusions unchange

Feature importance for machine learning redshifts applied to SDSS galaxies

We present an analysis of importance feature selection applied to photometric redshift estimation using the machine learning architecture Decision Trees with the ensemble learning routine Adaboost (hereafter RDF). We select a list of 85 easily measured (or derived) photometric quantities (or `features') and spectroscopic redshifts for almost two million galaxies from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey Data Release 10. After identifying which features have the most predictive power, we use standard artificial Neural Networks (aNN) to show that the addition of these features, in combination with the standard magnitudes and colours, improves the machine learning redshift estimate by 18% and decreases the catastrophic outlier rate by 32%. We further compare the redshift estimate using RDF with those from two different aNNs, and with photometric redshifts available from the SDSS. We find that the RDF requires orders of magnitude less computation time than the aNNs to obtain a machine learning redshift while reducing both the catastrophic outlier rate by up to 43%, and the redshift error by up to 25%. When compared to the SDSS photometric redshifts, the RDF machine learning redshifts both decreases the standard deviation of residuals scaled by 1/(1+z) by 36% from 0.066 to 0.041, and decreases the fraction of catastrophic outliers by 57% from 2.32% to 0.99%.Comment: 10 pages, 4 figures, updated to match version accepted in MNRA

Tuning target selection algorithms to improve galaxy redshift estimates

We showcase machine learning (ML) inspired target selection algorithms to determine which of all potential targets should be selected first for spectroscopic follow up. Efficient target selection can improve the ML redshift uncertainties as calculated on an independent sample, while requiring less targets to be observed. We compare the ML targeting algorithms with the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) target order, and with a random targeting algorithm. The ML inspired algorithms are constructed iteratively by estimating which of the remaining target galaxies will be most difficult for the machine learning methods to accurately estimate redshifts using the previously observed data. This is performed by predicting the expected redshift error and redshift offset (or bias) of all of the remaining target galaxies. We find that the predicted values of bias and error are accurate to better than 10-30% of the true values, even with only limited training sample sizes. We construct a hypothetical follow-up survey and find that some of the ML targeting algorithms are able to obtain the same redshift predictive power with 2-3 times less observing time, as compared to that of the SDSS, or random, target selection algorithms. The reduction in the required follow up resources could allow for a change to the follow-up strategy, for example by obtaining deeper spectroscopy, which could improve ML redshift estimates for deeper test data.Comment: 16 pages, 9 figures, updated to match MNRAS accepted version. Minor text changes, results unchange

Anomaly detection for machine learning redshifts applied to SDSS galaxies

We present an analysis of anomaly detection for machine learning redshift estimation. Anomaly detection allows the removal of poor training examples, which can adversely influence redshift estimates. Anomalous training examples may be photometric galaxies with incorrect spectroscopic redshifts, or galaxies with one or more poorly measured photometric quantity. We select 2.5 million 'clean' SDSS DR12 galaxies with reliable spectroscopic redshifts, and 6730 'anomalous' galaxies with spectroscopic redshift measurements which are flagged as unreliable. We contaminate the clean base galaxy sample with galaxies with unreliable redshifts and attempt to recover the contaminating galaxies using the Elliptical Envelope technique. We then train four machine learning architectures for redshift analysis on both the contaminated sample and on the preprocessed 'anomaly-removed' sample and measure redshift statistics on a clean validation sample generated without any preprocessing. We find an improvement on all measured statistics of up to 80% when training on the anomaly removed sample as compared with training on the contaminated sample for each of the machine learning routines explored. We further describe a method to estimate the contamination fraction of a base data sample.Comment: 13 pages, 8 figures, 1 table, minor text updates to macth MNRAS accepted versio

Stacking for machine learning redshifts applied to SDSS galaxies

We present an analysis of a general machine learning technique called 'stacking' for the estimation of photometric redshifts. Stacking techniques can feed the photometric redshift estimate, as output by a base algorithm, back into the same algorithm as an additional input feature in a subsequent learning round. We shown how all tested base algorithms benefit from at least one additional stacking round (or layer). To demonstrate the benefit of stacking, we apply the method to both unsupervised machine learning techniques based on self-organising maps (SOMs), and supervised machine learning methods based on decision trees. We explore a range of stacking architectures, such as the number of layers and the number of base learners per layer. Finally we explore the effectiveness of stacking even when using a successful algorithm such as AdaBoost. We observe a significant improvement of between 1.9% and 21% on all computed metrics when stacking is applied to weak learners (such as SOMs and decision trees). When applied to strong learning algorithms (such as AdaBoost) the ratio of improvement shrinks, but still remains positive and is between 0.4% and 2.5% for the explored metrics and comes at almost no additional computational cost.Comment: 13 pages, 3 tables, 7 figures version accepted by MNRAS, minor text updates. Results and conclusions unchange

Calibrating Long Period Variables as Standard Candles with Machine Learning

Variable stars with well-calibrated period-luminosity relationships provide accurate distance measurements to nearby galaxies and are therefore a vital tool for cosmology and astrophysics. While these measurements typically rely on samples of Cepheid and RR-Lyrae stars, abundant populations of luminous variable stars with longer periods of $10 - 1000$ days remain largely unused. We apply machine learning to derive a mapping between lightcurve features of these variable stars and their magnitude to extend the traditional period-luminosity (PL) relation commonly used for Cepheid samples. Using photometric data for long period variable stars in the Large Magellanic cloud (LMC), we demonstrate that our predictions produce residual errors comparable to those obtained on the corresponding Cepheid population. We show that our model generalizes well to other samples by performing a blind test on photometric data from the Small Magellanic Cloud (SMC). Our predictions on the SMC again show small residual errors and biases, comparable to results that employ PL relations fitted on Cepheid samples. The residual biases are complementary between the long period variable and Cepheid fits, which provides exciting prospects to better control sources of systematic error in cosmological distance measurements. We finally show that the proposed methodology can be used to optimize samples of variable stars as standard candles independent of any prior variable star classification.Comment: 14 pages, 10 figures, 1 table, updated to match the version accepted by the MNRA

Photometric Redshift Uncertainties in Weak Gravitational Lensing Shear Analysis: Models and Marginalization

Recovering credible cosmological parameter constraints in a weak lensing shear analysis requires an accurate model that can be used to marginalize over nuisance parameters describing potential sources of systematic uncertainty, such as the uncertainties on the sample redshift distribution $n(z)$. Due to the challenge of running Markov Chain Monte-Carlo (MCMC) in the high dimensional parameter spaces in which the $n(z)$ uncertainties may be parameterized, it is common practice to simplify the $n(z)$ parameterization or combine MCMC chains that each have a fixed $n(z)$ resampled from the $n(z)$ uncertainties. In this work, we propose a statistically-principled Bayesian resampling approach for marginalizing over the $n(z)$ uncertainty using multiple MCMC chains. We self-consistently compare the new method to existing ones from the literature in the context of a forecasted cosmic shear analysis for the HSC three-year shape catalog, and find that these methods recover similar cosmological parameter constraints, implying that using the most computationally efficient of the approaches is appropriate. However, we find that for datasets with the constraining power of the full HSC survey dataset (and, by implication, those upcoming surveys with even tighter constraints), the choice of method for marginalizing over $n(z)$ uncertainty among the several methods from the literature may significantly impact the statistical uncertainties on cosmological parameters, and a careful model selection is needed to ensure credible parameter intervals.Comment: 15 pages, 8 figures, submitted to mnra